Nombre: FILIPE RODRIGUES NOGUEIRA CAMPOS
Tipo: MSc dissertation
Fecha de publicación: 28/02/2018
Supervisor:
Nombre |
Rol |
|---|---|
| GISELE DE LORENA DINIZ CHAVES | Advisor * |
Junta de examinadores:
| Nombre |
Rol |
|---|---|
| DANIEL DA CUNHA RIBEIRO | Internal Examiner * |
| FERNANDO OLIVEIRA DE ARAUJO | External Examiner * |
| GISELE DE LORENA DINIZ CHAVES | Advisor * |
| WANDERLEY CARDOSO CELESTE | Internal Examiner * |
Resumen: The security of the electric power supply is one of the preponderant factors of
analysis of the organizational policies. Every year the world energy consumption has
been showing patterns of systematic growth, thus requiring an increasing capacity of
production and distribution of electricity. The Brazilian scenario is consistent with this
growth, but it tends to face some barriers. Based on the work of Aslani, Helo and
Naaranoja (2014), the present study aims to carry out an analysis of the safety and
diversity impact of the implementation of policies to encourage the expansion of the
participation of renewable sources in the national energy matrix. Based on a cause
and effect diagram, a Systems Dynamics model is used to evaluate Brazilian
scenarios of policies to expand renewable installed capacity and reduce the use of
thermoelectric plants. Thirty-two simulation scenarios were established in three axes
of analysis. The scenarios take into account the speed of implementation of the
policies, the achievement of the established goals and the participation of
thermoelectric plants in electricity generation over a ten-year horizon, between 2017
and 2026. The analysis shows that the expansion of the system's capacities
increases diversity and keep the system safe by the end of the next decade, albeit at
a lower level. The thermoelectric plants are fundamental for this maintenance, since
their reduction drastically increases the risk of deficit. The proposed model serves as
a basis for other scenarios related to renewable energy policies, which can be either
expanded to include cost and risk approaches or implemented under other analytical
parameters.
