Name: MONIQUE SILVARES MISSÁGIA
Publication date: 23/03/2026
Examining board:
Name |
Role |
|---|---|
| ARTHUR EDUARDO ALVES AMORIM | Examinador Interno |
| ROCHKHUDSON BATISTA DE FARIA | Coorientador |
| ROQUEMAR DE LIMA BALDAM | Examinador Externo |
| THIAGO PADOVANI XAVIER | Presidente |
Summary: The accelerated growth of solar photovoltaic energy intensifies the challenge of managing end-of-life modules. It is estimated that by 2050, 78 million tons of photovoltaic waste will be generated globally, highlighting the urgency of sustainable solutions. In Brazil, the infrastructure for recycling high-purity silicon remains in its early stages, and specific policies are still fragmented, reinforcing dependence on virgin raw materials and increasing environmental and economic impacts. This study aims to analyze silicon recycling methods in c-Si photovoltaic modules and to propose a computational model to simulate the dynamic silicon stock in Brazil through 2050. The theoretical framework addresses the historical evolution of solar energy, the fundamentals of the circular economy, and the role of data science in photovoltaic waste management, illustrated by the cases of SunR in Brazil and PV Cycle in Europe. The methodology follows two main stages: a systematic literature review, the definition of technical parameters, the formulation of system dynamics equations, and simulations in Python using NumPy and Matplotlib; and a multicriteria analysis using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to ensure the robustness of the results. The simulations consider baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios, assessing demand, recycling efficiency, and environmental impact. The results reveal a gradual decline in silicon stocks, a linear increase in recycled volume, and significant reductions in CO emissions under favorable regulatory scenarios. The integration of computational modeling and AHP proves to be an effective tool for supporting strategic decision-making and guiding public policies aimed at the circular economy. It is concluded that circular practices reduce dependence on virgin silicon and promote sustainability in the Brazilian photovoltaic sector, providing a foundation for sustainable development strategies and reinforcing the need for synergy among government, industry, and academia.
